04/08/2020

Qiaqia Food (002557): The performance has exceeded the expected second growth curve gradually

Qiaqia Food (002557): The performance has exceeded the expected second growth curve gradually

Event description: The company released a performance report, with revenue of 48 in 2019.

3.7 billion, an increase of 15 in ten years.

25%, net profit attributable to mother 6.

2.0 billion, a 39-year growth of 39.

13%.

Core point of view: In the first and fourth quarters, the revenue and profit were much higher than expected, and the major categories were in full swing: the company’s single quarter revenue was +25 per year.

7%, net profit attributable to the mother for ten years +55.

1%, both exceeded market expectations, mainly due to several reasons. 1) All business segments have been growing vigorously: Since the third quarter, the company ‘s traditional red bag seeds have increased to more than two, increasing by about 10%.
High-end blue sack seeds grow by about 30%, and annual revenue is expected to reach about 900 million.

Small yellow bag daily nut income is expected to reach 8.

500 million, an annual increase of 50-60%.

In addition, the growth rate of overseas and e-commerce business has also improved; 2) The Spring Festival in 2020 has been advanced, and the channel preparation time has been correspondingly advanced; 3) After the daily increase in the size of small nut bags, and the increase in automation, the overall gross profit level has increased to 30%, Start contributing profits.

2. The overall impact of the epidemic is limited, household consumption has increased, and packaging seeds have been replaced by bulk seeds: The company has resumed work on February 10, and the company ‘s January delivery was normal and unaffected.

In addition, about 60% of the company’s sales channels are in modern stores, which are less affected by closed stores.

The company’s traditional sunflower seed business mainly focuses on household consumption. Prolonged home time may increase the consumption of sunflower seeds, so the overall impact of the epidemic is not significant.

Nut gift boxes and other items are expected to be affected by the epidemic, but they will not account for a 重庆耍耍网 large proportion of overall income.

Out of stock in some KA stores since February, dealers may lose part of their sales revenue due to lack of manual replenishment and other factors. It is expected that the impact on revenue in the first quarter will be about 5%.

In the long run, the epidemic will instead help increase consumer awareness of food safety and speed up the substitution of packaged seeds for bulk seeds.

3. The internal improvement gradually became obvious, and the second growth curve gradually changed to: the company’s internal transformation has been obvious since 17 years, and it has proposed a development plan of 10 billion revenue in the next five years, focusing its strategic focus on the two major businesses of seeds and nuts, and”Focus on the quality of nuts for 20 years” positioning, through the development of daily single nut products to make the company on the second growth curve.

New products such as blue bags and yellow bags continue to be introduced, which has also increased the consumer attention of traditional red bags.

The company introduces an employee shareholding plan every year, and has now launched the fourth phase. With the withdrawal of reward funds, the company’s long-term lock-in method binds the interests of employees to the company, fully mobilizing the subjective initiative and motivation of employees.

4. Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.

19 yuan, 1.

40 yuan and 1.

67 yuan.

The corresponding estimate is 34/29/25, maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating.

5. Risk warnings: 1) Food safety risks; 2) New product promotion is less than expected; 3) Risks of epidemic impact exceeding expectations.