Depth * Company * Construction Bank (601939): Rising deposit costs dragged down the difference difference QoQ down asset quality remained stable
CCB’s comprehensive layout is ahead of its peers. Over the years, it has accumulated a large number of customers and the government has obvious advantages in resources. The company has continued to develop financial technology services business, and technology empowerment has shown initial results.
The performance in 2018 remained stable, and the asset quality performance was transformed by its peers. Although the performance of corporate deposits was weak, the proportion of demand deposits remained stable, and the CCB buy rating was maintained.
Key points supporting the rating The profit before the provision increased steadily, the rising deposit cost dragged down the interest margin to narrow slightly, and CCB’s 2018 net profit increased by 5.
1%, the growth rate is faster than the growth rate in the first three quarters (6.
4%, year-on-year) fell slightly 1.
The three averages were mainly due to the increase in the provisioning strength of the provision, and the net profit before provisioning was extended by 7.
5%, the growth rate remains stable.
Company revenue increased by 5 in two years.
99%, of which the program fee income increased by the rapid development of credit card and internet financial services, an increase of 1 compared with the first three quarters.
3 up to 4.
However, the annual growth rate of net interest income was faster than that in the previous 南宁桑拿 quarter.
2 up to 7.
5%, due to the volume factor, the company’s scale growth rate in the fourth quarter, the asset size fell 0 chain.
6%; the interest rate of the other party decreased slightly, and the initial interest rate of CCB was 2.
31%, lower than the previous 3 quarters 2.
The narrowing of interest margin is mainly due to the increase in deposit growth pressure. The issue cost is increased by 5BP compared to 2018H, which drives the interest payment compensation cost to increase by 3BP, and the average yield of interest-earning assets is only 1BP higher than 2018H.
The asset structure was tilted towards retail, and the pressure on the growth of public deposits was terminated. At the end of the fourth quarter, the total assets of CCB increased by 5% /-0 respectively.
6%, of which loans increased 杭州夜网 by 6% / 0%, respectively, accounting for 57% of total assets.
From the perspective of breaking through the credit structure, the company’s credit resources are further tilted towards the retail side. 73% of the increased loans are invested in retail loans, and the proportion of retail loans in total loans has increased2.
12 up to 42.
4%, of which the mortgage loan and credit card business fully performed, respectively extended by 12.
8% / 15.
On the debt side, the deposits at the end of the fourth quarter increased by 5% /-0 from the same month last month.
7%, of which demand deposit accounted for 53.
5%, generally stable.
From a structural point of view, the growth of total deposits in 2018 was mainly driven by the highly competitive retail industry, while the growth of public deposits was under pressure, and the scale decreased by the end of the first half of the year.
At 6%, it is expected that the regulatory policy for the year of third-party payment reserve payments for centralized deposit deposits will also be one of the influencing factors. Later, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of retail conversion on deposit growth.
Asset quality remained stable, and provision coverage further strengthened CCB’s NPL ratio in the fourth quarter decreased by 1BP to 1 from the previous quarter.
46%, the non-performing rate showed a downward trend for 4 consecutive quarters. We estimated that the company’s single-quarter non-performing rate in the fourth quarter was 0.
76%, stable from the previous quarter.
Concerned loans accounted for 2%.
81%, down 1BP from the previous month.
As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2018, CCB’s loan / non-performing loan ratio overdue for more than 90 days was 60.
1%, strict criteria for bad identification.In 2018, CCB further strengthened its provisioning (+26.
8%, year-on-year), provision coverage ratio increased 37% from the previous quarter.
2 up to 208.
4%, provision is consolidated and worry-free, and the ability to resist risks is further enhanced.
Estimate: Considering that the company’s 19-year interest margin increase is subject to the tilt of the asset-side overall pricing downlink and the increase in provisioning efforts, we cut the 19/20 profit growth rate of CCB to 5.
5% / 6.
5% (previous forecast was 9.
4% / 8.
The overall corresponding PE for 2019/20 is currently 6.
47x / 6.
07x, PB is 0.
83x / 0.
76x, maintain CCB buy rating.
The main risks faced by the rating are: asset quality expectations exceed expectations, and financial supervision exceeds expectations.