09/04/2020

Kouzijiao (603589): Upgraded within the province, the net profit margin of expansion outside the province reached a new high

Kouzijiao (603589): Upgraded within the province, the net profit margin of expansion outside the province reached a new high

The event company released the 2018 annual report, and the first quarter of 2019 reported that the company achieved operating income in 201842.

69 ppm, an increase of 18 years.

5%, to achieve net profit attributable to mother 15.

33 ppm, an 武汉夜网论坛 increase of 37 in ten years.

6%, the increase in the next ten years after deducting 36.
.

5%; corresponds to basic EPS2.

54 yuan.

Among them, the operating income in the fourth quarter alone was 10.

$ 1.9 billion, an increase of 19.

6%, to achieve net profit attributable to mother 3.

91 ppm, an increase of 84 in ten years.

0%.

2019Q1 achieved operating income13.

62 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.

0%, to achieve net profit attributable to mother 5.

45 ppm, an increase of 21 per year.

4%, an increase of 22 in the next ten years.

3%.

Brief evaluation of the revenue side: 18Q4 + 19Q1 revenue has grown steadily, and the province has continued to increase rapidly, and the province-wide acceleration company 18Q4 + 19Q1 has achieved revenue 24.

23 ‰ (ten years +13.

4%), cash back 23.

460,000 yuan (ten years +0.

6%); as of the end of 2018, donations received in advance9.

180,000 yuan (ten years +7.

2%), at the end of the first quarter of 2019, the fund received in advance4.

890 thousand yuan (ten years +0.

9%).

By region, the province continued to grow at a high speed, and the expansion outside the province accelerated steadily.

In Anhui province in 2018, the growth rates outside the province were 18% and 28% (31% and 11% in 2017).

In the future, the company’s revenue will continue to grow steadily under the dual drive of consumption upgrades and expansion outside the province.

In terms of products, the company’s product structure continued to improve, benefiting from a clear trend of consumption upgrade.

In 2018, the revenue growth of high-end, mid-range and low-end liquors was + 22%, -25%, and -21%.

Driven by the structural upgrade, the company’s gross profit margin increased steadily.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 74.

7% (ten years +1.

5pct), 19Q1 gross profit margin 77.

8% (previously +3.
1pct).

Profit side: the overall expense ratio during the period decreased; the net profit margin hit a new high for 18 years, and the company’s sales expense ratio was 7.

9% (year -1.

0pct), scale of selling expenses 3.

360,000 yuan, the main increase comes from advertising; management expense ratio 4.

2% (one year-0.

9pct), management efficiency continued to improve.

With the gross margin rising and the expense ratio falling, the company achieved a net profit margin of 35 in 2018.

9% (decade +5.

0pct), 2019Q1 net profit margin is 40.

0% (decade +4.

1pct).
In the future, the gradual structure will be continuously upgraded and the operating efficiency will be continuously improved, and the profitability is expected to further improve.

The company’s intra-provincial competition system is stable, and it is expanding steadily outside the province.

The aim is that the Huijiu leader continues to benefit from the province’s consumption upgrade and concentration; the alternative, the private mechanism drives efficiency improvements.

First of all, the upgrade trend of Huijiu in recent years is obvious. The price band has jumped from 100 yuan to 200 yuan. This price band has a significant volume. As the leader of Huijiu, the company’s main products are positioned at mid-to-high end.The benefits of this round of upgrades are obvious.

The market outside the province encourages “big business in the province to go out”. The development has accelerated in the past two years. From the number of dealers, 2016?
In 2018, the number of dealers outside the province increased by 58, 18, and 33, respectively, and the revenue growth rate outside the province reached 62.

9%, 11.

0%, 27.

9%.

Secondly, the company is a purely private-owned liquor company that has been reduced from liquor companies. It adopts a large dealer system and has a strong ability to control expenses. The net profit margin of sales is at a medium to high level among liquor companies, and the sales expense ratio is at a high level.

The company binds dealers and core interests to form a co-benefit mechanism, which is conducive to the company’s risk control and sustainable mechanism.

The company’s performance-driven future will be strong.

Profit forecast and investment advice: What do we expect the company to do in 2019?
Income in 2021 will be 50.

56, 61.

38, 73.

32 ppm, an increase of 18 years.

4%, 21.

4%, 19.

4%; net profit attributable to mothers is 18 respectively.

64, 22.

23, 27.

24 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

6%, 19.

3%, 22.

6%; the corresponding basic EPS is 3.

11, 3.

70, 3.
54 yuan.

Latest consensus (4.

17) 55.
47 yuan, corresponding to 2019?
The static PE will be 17 in 2021.

9, 15.

0, 12.

1X; Maintain “Buy Rating” and raise target price to 65 yuan, corresponding to 2019?
The dynamic PE in 2021 will be 20.

9, 17.

6, 14.

3 times.